The GPU export limit might start to matter

White House's new chip rules seem to not have huge impact right now, in the "tier 2" countries like Estonia. It is unlikely we ever would have been able to build a $1B data center anyway. But this restriction could still become significant.

I don't fully understand but I assume the per-country limit won't change with hardware progress. Brief googling shows that Blackwell could give a speedup of 2.5x over H100 (I am not confident how well this generalizes). So after three new generations, the country limit is 2,000 chips not 30,000 chips. That is already a number Estonia might hit, and a richer more capital-and-R&D-heavy country like Switzerland will hit the limit much earlier.